Bibiana gas field reserves on the verge of exhaustion. US company Chevron operates the gas field. At present, 1 thousand 2 million cubic feet or 39 percent of gas is supplied to the national grid daily from that gas field. And if the supply of gas from Bibiana is stopped, the energy and economic security of the country will be a serious threat. Based on the proven and probable reserve estimates, Bibiyana was initially thought to hold about six trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas.
However, more than six TCF has already been extracted. Last year, Chevron reported an additional 481 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas reserves in Bangladesh to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Petrobangla, this reserve also comes from Bibiyana. Their latest assessment shows that most of this additional gas has already been extracted, leaving the field’s reserves close to depletion.
In addition to domestically produced gas, the national grid is supposed to receive 1,100 million cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) daily. However, this supply is entirely import-dependent. The two floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) that manage LNG imports have faced operational issues, with one being out of service for nearly three and a half months. As a result, only 550 million cubic feet of LNG has been supplied daily to the grid. Despite the terminal resuming operations, LNG supply has not increased due to the lack of imports, putting further pressure on the country’s industries, power generation, and fertilizer production. Preliminary estimates of Bibiyana’s gas initially in place (GIIP) indicate a total reserve of 8,383 BCF. However, not all of this gas is recoverable.
According to geologists, about 70 percent of the total reserves in such gas fields are typically recoverable based on the gas recovery factor. There has been no confirmation of any additional large gas reserves at Bibiyana, and neither the Energy Division nor Petrobangla has announced any new discoveries. However, experts believe that if another 1-2 TCF of recoverable gas is found, it could significantly alter the current gas crisis in the country’s energy sector.
According to data from the Hydrocarbon Unit, Bibiyana gas field has a proven reserve of 5,755 billion cubic feet (BCF). No additional information on new reserves at Bibiyana has been released. However, Chevron’s 2023 annual report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission stated that their reserve management increased gas reserves in Bangladesh by 481 BCF. While the report did not specifically name the gas field, a reliable source at Petrobangla confirmed that this reserve belongs to Bibiyana.
Based on this, Bibiyana’s total reserves are estimated at 6,236 BCF. As of June this year, 5,975 BCF had already been extracted, with an additional 87 BCF expected to be extracted between July and September. By the end of this month, a total of 6,062 BCF will have been extracted, leaving approximately 174 BCF remaining.
Energy experts indicate that at the current rate of production, Bibiyana can continue supplying gas for only one to two more years. Currently, the national grid receives 2,590 million cubic feet of gas daily, with over 1,000 million cubic feet supplied by Bibiyana. Chevron is working to maintain consistent production, but there is no immediate alternative to Bibiyana’s gas for the national grid. Experts warn that if production decreases in the next couple of years, it could lead to a collapse in the country’s gas supply management.
Petrobangla’s Director, Engineer Kamruzzaman Khan, said, “Both LNG terminals are now operational, but due to insufficient LNG supply for both, only one terminal is being utilized at the moment. From October 5-6, we expect to supply LNG through both terminals.”
To expand operations in the Sylhet region, Chevron signed three agreements with Petrobangla in October 2022. These agreements granted Chevron new areas within the Bibiyana gas field. The company also extended the gas purchase and sale agreements for the Moulvibazar and Jalalabad gas fields. Currently, the agreements for Jalalabad and Bibiyana fields are valid until 2034, while the Moulvibazar field agreement extends until 2038. As part of efforts to increase gas production, Chevron drilled an evaluation well (Bibiyana-27) at Bibiyana last year, though the results from this well are yet to be disclosed.
Experts believe that proper maintenance and management of Bibiyana could lead to an increase in gas reserves. They stress the need for further drilling and more comprehensive assessments of recoverable reserves in the field. Untapped areas of the Bibiyana gas field may yield additional gas if new drilling activities are undertaken.
Energy expert and geologist Professor Badrul Imam said, “It cannot be ruled out that the initial reserve estimates could increase over time. Before extraction begins, there is one type of estimate, but it may change once production starts. This can happen with any gas field.”
The gas crisis in the country is worsening, severely affecting industries, power plants, and fertilizer factories. Industrial entrepreneurs, especially those in large-scale production, are facing significant challenges. Large industries account for 68 percent of total employment in the country’s manufacturing sector, using 63 percent of raw materials and 56 percent of electricity and fuel. Among these, the ceramics and textile sectors are suffering the most. In some instances, production losses in ceramics factories have exceeded 20 percent, leading to the wastage of substantial raw materials. The textile sector is operating at only 50 percent of its production capacity due to the gas shortage, causing uncertainty in meeting delivery deadlines for buyers. Various industry associations have appealed to Petrobangla for uninterrupted gas supply. Entrepreneurs also claim that the low average PSI of gas is damaging the advanced machinery in their factories.
The electricity sector is similarly grappling with a major crisis. According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), the country’s average demand for electricity, day and night combined, is nearly 15,000 megawatts. Due to inadequate gas supply, about half of the gas-based power plants, which collectively generate around 12,500 megawatts, are currently idle. There are also shortages in coal and oil based power plants, exacerbating the countrywide load shedding.
ZH